ZMA is hoping that Danielle stays away from the state of Florida. Cross the Gulf is next Sunday and ZMA does not want Danielle to disturb the event. LOL
Tropics Watch: "Danielle Wannabe"
by Jonathan Erdman, Editorial Meteorologist
What about the U.S.?
To be sure, it is much too soon to determine if this system will eventually impact the U.S. It depends, to a large part, on the steering currents in the atmosphere's upper levels.
The following pattern would "guard" the East Coast from a tropical cyclone approaching from the Atlantic Ocean (not Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico). Namely, a trough, or dip in the upper-level wind currents over or near the East Coast, and, therefore, an upper ridge retreated into the central or eastern Atlantic would cause the tropical cyclone to curve toward the north and northeast, well away from the East Coast.
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Last season's most intense tropical cyclone, Hurricane Bill, did just that.
If the eastern trough is absent, and therefore, the upper-ridge expands westward, a more ominous pattern sets up for the East Coast. Instead of "recurving" out to open waters, the tropical cyclone would then continue a west or northwest track toward the coast.
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Intense hurricanes can also "build their own" upper-level ridge, which would force their track a little farther south (or left, if you will).
At this time, any potential U.S. impact from this system wouldn't occur until the last few days of August, if not later. So, there is plenty of time to monitor this situation. Now would be a great time to make sure you're prepared for a hurricane.
